Top 10 Closers for 2011

1. Brian Wilson – Wilson last year lead MLB with 48 saves. The Giants have a very good rotation, and I don’t believe their offense is going to blow teams away, so he should get a lot of save ops this season. Wilson seems to go through rough patches during the season, but as a whole he has been a solid reliever for the past 3 season with 41, and 38 saves in ‘08 and ‘09.

2. Jonathan Papelbon – Papelbon had a rough season with 3.90 ERA, 8 BS and 7 loses. He still ended up with 37 saves. If he bounces back a little he could have another big season.

3. Neftali Feliz – This rookie had a very nice season taking over the closing duties for the Rangers. He had 71 k in 69.1 inn and that could get even better. At this point it is still possible that they move him to the rotation, but if he is back as the teams closer he should have a very nice season of around 40 saves and 90+ Ks.

4. Heath Bell – Heath had another nice season last year, and pointed out as the top fantasy reliever with 705 points. Pitching in PETCO most likely helped his numbers with only giving up 1 HR in his 70 innings pitched. Bell should have another nice season, with maybe between 35-40 saves. I believe SD as a team will take a step back this year after trading away Adrian Gonzalez to Boston this offseason.

5. Joakim Soria – Joakim is a very good closer on a very bad team, but bad teams still win about 60 games, and they don’t win them by a lot. Soria should have another nice season despite the terrible Royals. Last year he set a career high 43 saves, and he should be able to be close to that again this season.If he gets traded to a good team and stays the closer he could have a great season.

6. Carlos Marmol – Marmol finally got the job as the Cubs closer last year. He recorded 38 saves with 138 K in 77.2 IP. With a fantastic 16 K/9 rate Marmol has a great skills, but he could use some improvement as he also walked 52 batters last year. I like that Marmol with some improvement in his control could be an elite closer.

7. Jose Valverde – Papa Grande had a great first half last year. Before the all-star game he had a line of 0.92ERA, 19 saves. His post all star break was not very good, 6.38 ERA 7 saves. I believe with the improvements the Tigers have made to the offense in the offseason, he should be able to get over 30 saves this year.

8. Mariano Rivera – Probably the best closer ever, at 40 years old Mo is not as unhittable as he once was. Last year he had 5 blown saves which is more than any of the previous 5 seasons. He should still get over 30 saves and be a solid closer for any fantasy team.

9. John Axord – Axford had a nice season last year for the Brewers getting 24 saves. He scored 455 points last year and with the retirement of Trevor Hoffman he is the teams undisputied closer coming into 2011. The Brewers have added Grienke in the offseason which will help the starting rotation.

10. Brad Lidge – Lidge has what could be one of the greatest rotations of all time in front of him, and a very good offense as well. He should be in line for a lot of save ops. He can be a scary closer for your fantasy team, after going 41-0 in save ops in 08, he blew 11 saves in 09. Last season he had 27 saves with 5 blown saves. He could have a very good season with this team.

Fantasy Baseball Points League Strategy- Keeper League

Fantasy Baseball Points League Strategy- Keeper League
By Doug Dallas

Pitchers are clearly the way to go in order to win the last few years as proven by past champion teams over the last few years. Three years ago Jeremy dominated with Linecum, Halladay, and Cole Hamels. Two years ago Hank dominated with CC Sabathia, Wainright, and Verlander. And this year the new champion Patty had a rotation of Weaver, Hudson, Myers, and Danks along with two of the best relievers in H.Bell and Soriano. You also see the two previous teams in this year’s standings finishing 2nd and 3rd overall which were the last two money spots with their staffs still together from the championship run. Both staffs of the previous championship runs were anchored by a top closer also.

During the PED era many teams could win with number one hitting and average hitting but in the new era hitting has regressed while pitching has soared and now top hitting and mid pitching gets a 4th place finish and barely a look at how close they were to a money spot. You can see an adjustment by teams as even marginal starters that were discarded in the past are kept on the belief that it will be hard to find pitching with everyone seeing the last three champions win because of it.

The problem with pitching is the same problem as the past, it’s very volatile and can be unstable unless you have one of the elite starters and every year one of them seem to go down. If you are a team that feels you have great pitching all it takes is a slow start or major injury and often the season is in jeopardy because of how hard pitching is to replace. While hitting is more consistent we do not have as many players that hit even 500 points to show a clear advantage over another tier of hitters.

The other issues lie in the fact that pitching last year was found in all rounds of the draft, the teams that did not do well also happened to be the teams that drafted pitching early and it flopped. A team that came shooting up to the top with two closers kept drafted pitching for the first three rounds and hit on solid guys, not superstars, but guys who produced for most of the season and were consistent, that propelled the team to first…had those picks been busts, the team would have had to acquire pitching via trade which is very tough to do. One team during the season had to trade a young gun like Braun to add an old veteran stable pitcher like Carpenter to anchor a staff and not one other team stepped up with a decent alternative because they needed their pitching to compete.

The new landscape of fantasy baseball in the points league is clearly dictated by the pitching staff and even a top closer to complete it. A team has a solid core and they will be near the top early in the season and in a position to be adding players from sell off teams. A team that has pitchers underperform, get hurt, or doesn’t have a bench of pitching will find out that if pitching is their weakness, well, good luck fixing that weakness as there are very few trade options out there without trading a major piece of a team.
I expect pitching to move up the draft and by default cause guys to be over drafted, which means if you are a team with a great core of pitchers, you are already in the driver seat. If you’re a team with no pitcher keepers or just an average one, I wish you the best of luck and probably a lot of your draft will be bypassing solid players to take the next possible breakout pitcher. Fantasy points leagues are on notice and a rotisserie cheat sheet probably only gets a team a bigger beat down by overvaluing some guy with steals or a one category homer guy tempting someone to pass on the John Danks of the world…beware.

Fantasy Baseball Point League Observation- Catchers- Jan 7th

Fantasy Baseball Point League Observation- Catchers- January 7th, 2011
By Doug Dallas

I wanted to see how much of an advantage catchers provided a team and took a look at the top 16 since the current league has 16 owners. I looked at the top 4 and consensus keeper type catchers versus guys drafted many times down in round 7 or later, then calculated difference in points to find out where the value is. Bear with the number of stats dropped and I know it may be boring for some to read, but wanted to make my points.

Catchers-
Joe Mauer- Number 1- 418- 3.1 137 games- Actually the second highest started for all catchers. The next highest was Brian Mcann
Brian Mcann had the most starts at 143 for 340 and a 2.4 average for rd overall, just behind Victor Martinez.
Victor Martinez played in 127 games and averaged 2.9 for a solid 373 total points
Buster Posey- Number 5 overall catcher in only 108 starts for a total of 303 points at a solid 2.8 average.

All four of these guys will be kept I am sure and it is hard to argue in a year where the best hitting average is 2.7 and these guys for the most part exceeded that average. With a second glance however you will see that the top 15 catchers played a combined 1,855 games, which I divided by 15 meaning the average is 123.7 on average leaving roughly 40 starts to be made by a backup catcher. I also took the top 6 catchers and the average only jumped to 129 or the top five catchers and the average went to 129.2 in total starts. Some may argue that makes a Joe Mauer with 137 or a McCann with 143 that much more valuable, but based on previous injury histories the players tend to always be in this range or lower.

If I take the next best young catchers people are going to probably keep or draft high I have Buster Posey with 108 starts at 2.8 for 303 total points. Say he plays all year and I give him a generous 30 more starts, that will put him at 386 for the year, that’s almost half of what Albert Pujols scores, or about 42% of the total points Halladay scored (924) or a third if you use actual stats.

Where am I going with this?…well, to each their own and many people win using different strategies. But the number 1 catcher scored 418 total points and did not come close to the 162 game mark. In relation to that the number 1 and 2 first baseman scored 640 and 573 and to get down to Joe Mauers total points I see 9 first baseman scored higher, the number 10 guy Cuddyer scored 406 and the number guy Daric Barton scored 390…so for the 28 point difference you could have picked up Barton multiple times.

In relation to 2nd base the number 1 guy scored 540 and the number 5 guy scored 408 (K.Johnson) and number 6 guy 403 (prado). Guys like Uggla, Weeks, Johnson, Prado all scored more points than the number one catcher….but I get you guys are saying, position scarcity….quit comparing to other positions…ok

The difference between the number 1 catcher (mauer) and number 10 catcher (posada) is 172 points. Over the course of the season that is 6 months (April to end of September) that is 28.7 points a month difference or almost a point a day difference. This year the championship was decided by less than 100 points, so it could be a huge factor…until you figure in that the difference from the number 16 catcher (Hernandez) of 198 total points to the number 6 catcher (Pierzynski) is only 72 points for a difference of 12 points a month or about 3 points a week…heck, run it to the number 4 catcher (Suzuki) 303 total points for a difference of a 105 points. So the difference from the 4 catcher to the 16 catcher is 17.5 points a month or about 4 points a week.
With all the injuries at catcher, the bonus not as great as say Pujols to the 8th best first baseman, is it worth it to keep a catcher? I don’t know the answer and if put in a position could not see myself letting go of Mauer, but the stats say there is not that big of gain from the top catchers to the number 16 starting catcher and certainly proven between 4 and 16.
To be honest, SS and 3rd base are almost as bare as catcher and a similar argument could be made there. But I feel the games played are much more consistent in those positions. Outfield kicks the crap with 18 outfielders higher than the best catcher.
The last argument I see against catcher is looking at ADP of catchers from last year and the amount of teams able to add a catcher via pickup or trade during season that was serviceable.
1st catcher taken- Jorge Posada 120 games, 2.1, 246 total points- Number 11 catcher overall- Round 5- Pick 7- Chris W
2nd catcher taken- Kurt Suzuki 131 games, 2.3, 303 total points- Number 4 catcher overall – Round 5- Pick 14- Doug D
3rd catcher taken- Russell Martin- Could not find stats, clearly did not score over a 100 points, Round 6- Pick 7 -Hank
4th catcher taken- Miguel Montero 85 games played, 2.0, 169 total points- Number 23 catcher overall- Round 6- Pick 13- Mike K
5th catcher taken- Ryan Doumit 124 games, 1.7, 216 total points- Number 15 catcher overall- Jeremy H
I could go on but I will take a look at a couple late drafted success guys in Carlos Santana and Buster Posey. Pickups like John Buck and Jason Kendell…and one upside guy named Wieters.

Buster Posey- Round 9 pick 7 by Dave-108 starts, 2.8- 303 points, tied as 4th best catcher overall with Suzuki.
Carlos Santana- Round 18 pick 3 by Chris- 46 starts, 2.8, 131 points, the number 30th catcher overall
Undrafted
John Buck- 118 games, 2.0, 231 points and the 13th overall catcher
Jon Jaso- 109 games, 2.4, 258 points and the 9th overall catcher
John Kendell – 118 games, 1.9, 220 points and the 14th overall catcher

Kept Young catcher
Matt Wieters- 130 games, 1.7, 216 points and the 15th overall catcher.

In order for that to make some sense Wieters as a keeper obviously got trounced by pickup catchers and traded catchers. When I look at a guy like Doumit, Martin, Montero drafted at the top yet see 169, 216, and probably barely a 100 points scored while guys like Carlos Gonzalez round 8 score 541 points, Raf Furcal, Tori Hunter, Martin Prado and a ton of pitchers like David Price go after these highly sought catchers that produce at a snail’s pace year in and year out.
I just wanted to do a quick write up of a position that has been overrated over the years and watching Patty add Posey or Rob picking up Carlos Santana, or catcher after catcher drafted round 5 or later actually finish within 50 points of the top catchers, but not be kept, I cannot see a huge statistical advantage that a team gets.
And please don’t get me wrong, I am like anyone else and if the right guy falls to the right round even as a catcher I have no problem pulling the trigger and taking him, because obviously if he does hit 2.7 even for only 300 points it feels good having a good hitter regardless. I just wanted to point out how much I believe they are overrated in winning and overall point difference. Especially since every year you can add a second tier guy for the stretch run for pennies on the dollar.

The bottom line is that when I look at a closer like Heath Bell and see 10.5 for over 700 points or a Halladay at over 900 points and I know 8,000 points seems to be the threshold to win, I know these guys make huge differences for their teams. Posey helped Patty win, but so did great additions of Pagan, Coco Crisp, and the other little moves to fill all holes….Posey wasn’t the reason she won, but he did help and she didn’t have to draft him at all in order to add him.

Keeper League Strategy- Points League- Dave Trade

My thoughts on the Dave trade

I think both trades Dave pulled in getting Tim Linecum from Jeremy and CC Sabathia from Hank were outstanding and think very few people could of anted up even if they had the picks so that deserves a big pat on the back. I always look at picks as in the end, you still both have 19. It sure is nice to have high picks so that you can get closers, fill out roster and be solid top to bottom, but at the end of the day, you have the same amount of picks as other teams but exponentially better keepers.

That being said, I honestly do not think this league can be won if you have 4 keepers not produce. To be competitive you must have 3 of your keeper produce and no less. If you have 2 your fate is sealed. I have seen plenty of teams compete and make good trades and waiver pickups to compete with 3 of their six producing, but still struggle. The more keepers that produce and do what you expect or close the easier the rest of the process is…gives you trade value with more keepers producing, allows you to bypass positions in the draft and not pay a steep price by relying on a rock solid horse, allows you to pick up more position players at your most glaring weakness so that if your weak at C, it allows you to roster 3 catchers earlier in the draft, yet be competitive.

The move is brilliant in my opinion. Dave still has solid draft picks to pick up a closer or two, yet have the number 1 first baseman, a top 3 second baseman, a top 3 SS, and two of the top tier pitchers available in the game. Barring bad luck I know at least three of Dave’s keepers will hit expectations and a good chance that Dave hits 4 keepers producing which means you just have to work the waiver wire and draft to piece the rest of your team together. Linecum, Sabathia, and Pujols are most teams number one keepers and Dave has all three on one team in a 16 team league no less.

If Dave would have kept those picks he would have hit on some guys, had some nice young upside players but not much track record, had some depth, but none of them would have the keeper value of Linecum or Sabathia. The players may have gave great trade depth, allowed Dave to get a bunch of picks again the next year, field a solid group of overall players which allows him into the top 8 or top 10, but honestly, Kevin has ran this same attempt before.

Kevin has had very solid drafts over the last couple years and every year has to sell off again because he just cannot compete, so then he gets a bunch of high picks again…that system is proven not to work. I believe what has kept Kevin from competing is average keepers and even the ones that produce seem to under produce. This has proven to be ineffective and Kevin has started to adjust.

Lets take a new model of success and look at Hank who has a first place finish and 3rd place finish in the last three years. Hank traded and put together a super young stud pitching staff with three top aces. He also had some solid young hitters. Basically because he had three of the best pitches in the league, have basically 4-5 of his keepers produce, and have the shittiest draft in the history of the league and manage himself to a third place finish with great pickups and trades. He did a great job managing and making roster moves to complete the deal, but I honestly believe if he had 2 or 3 keepers produce like Kevin has had in the past, with that draft, he would have been in about last place.

You need the stallions to compete, at least a couple and Dave did that. Now Dave can hit on a few good players in the draft like every team does and have some late picks you can discard fast for the hot Bautista waiver pickup and be active there, or heck, even hit your own Phil Hughes, Latos, etc.

If you ask me, Dave just created the blueprint to how to win fast or at least will verify Hanks strategy. Hank started that by getting great keepers a few years ago and winning, Dave just took it to another level by adding even better keepers. I predict Dave will have the best team on paper going into the draft and just have to be solid at waivers and ok at the draft and I would think a money spot is almost guaranteed.

We play the games to prove it, but barring bad luck, this is the best move Dave could make and I believe had to make…remember, we still have 19 picks, what did Dave lose? Position? Sure, but how many late draft guys were good? How many great pickups were there? TONS…you just need a little luck and daily transactions, the keepers make the rest gravy.

The one mistake I made in the past is punting closers because I did not want to overpay for an average guy, don’t be looking for a closer after the draft or you will find out how much it hurts. Hank always seems to have a top closer out of the draft to help his pitching staff…if Dave gets that, his is the team to beat.